IS MTN Nigeria at a sweetspot?
MTN Nigeria declined by 10% in yesterday’s trading session on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, closing at N90.
The price point is a significant one, as that was its listing price in May last year.
Would this be a good time to buy?
There are arguments for and against that.
The buy case
At its current price, MTN Nigeria is trading at 9 times earnings. That is slightly higher than the average price earnings ratio on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
The PE ratio simply indicates how much investors are willing to pay for a stock, with the expectation of future growth in earnings.
The hold case
While the company’s fundamentals remain decent, the macro picture as a whole for the country is uninspiring.
You have a double whammy from the Coronavirus.
Lower crude oil prices mean lower revenue for the government, and pressure on the exchange rate.
Lockdowns in several key states mean income for a lot of people will be cut.
So while the lockdown could lead to a bump in revenue, that would only be from a select base.
A devaluation (in addition to the adjustment made already by the CBN) means costs would rise for the firm.
There is a strong possibility the country could go into recession. This would reduce disposable income for workers.
From an earnings perspective, the stock is trading at an earnings yield of 11%. That is lower than the current inflation rate of 12.2%.
One could look in the direction of stocks with higher yields.
From a dividend yield perspective, the stock is trading at 8.8%.
Simply put, it would take an investor a bit over 12 years to recover their investments, if dividends were to remain constant.
A further decline in share price, would make the stock attractive using these criteria.